Inflation is on the rise. What will happen to prices in 2022?
This year, prices in Russia have been growing at a record pace over the past five years. Will inflation accelerate or, on the contrary, slow down in 2022, АиФ.ги I asked the economists.
"Inflation will accelerate in 2022. The first reason is the rise in raw material prices. Building materials became more expensive by up to 50%, metals increased in price by up to 100%, gas (exchange prices) - by 300-500%. Producers will gradually shift the rise in price of resources to the consumer, which will further develop an inflationary spiral.
The second reason is the disruption of logistics due to lockdowns and other restrictions. The cost and delivery time of goods have increased.
The third reason is that the tax burden has increased, both directly through increasing tax rates (for example, excise taxes on metal, resource taxes), and through tightening tax administration and tax collection.
In addition, the prices will be affected by the increase in the rate of the Bank of Russia. It will lead to an increase in loan rates, an increase in the cost of goods and services, which business will also shift to consumers."
The second reason is the disruption of logistics due to lockdowns and other restrictions. The cost and delivery time of goods have increased.
The third reason is that the tax burden has increased, both directly through increasing tax rates (for example, excise taxes on metal, resource taxes), and through tightening tax administration and tax collection.
In addition, the prices will be affected by the increase in the rate of the Bank of Russia. It will lead to an increase in loan rates, an increase in the cost of goods and services, which business will also shift to consumers."
Sergey Zainullin
Associate Professor of the Department of National Economics of the RUDN
"First of all, there will be a noticeable increase in food prices in 2022. This will be the most tangible manifestation of inflation for the population.
Already now we are seeing an increase in prices for more expensive categories of goods (real estate, cars and electronic equipment). All this is largely tied to imports, and will also become more expensive, as inflation in foreign markets is breaking records: prices in local currencies have risen, and prices for our importers will also rise.
The rise in price will affect not only those goods that we import entirely (machinery or part of cars), but also goods that are manufactured in Russia. They also depend on imports due to important components.
For example, domestic assembly of cars or machinery, in which there are many imported components, and agriculture, where a significant proportion of minerals and fertilizers are purchased abroad. Due to the fact that it will not be possible to quickly rebuild the supply chain, we will get external inflation, which will affect our domestic prices and lead to an increase in prices for a wide list of goods.
I think that the first significant price jump will happen in January 2022. Further, as economic phenomena develop, inflation will move along a certain spiral, which will be restrained by certain regulatory actions on the part of the state. However, if prices continue to rise on international markets, they will also grow in Russia."
Already now we are seeing an increase in prices for more expensive categories of goods (real estate, cars and electronic equipment). All this is largely tied to imports, and will also become more expensive, as inflation in foreign markets is breaking records: prices in local currencies have risen, and prices for our importers will also rise.
The rise in price will affect not only those goods that we import entirely (machinery or part of cars), but also goods that are manufactured in Russia. They also depend on imports due to important components.
For example, domestic assembly of cars or machinery, in which there are many imported components, and agriculture, where a significant proportion of minerals and fertilizers are purchased abroad. Due to the fact that it will not be possible to quickly rebuild the supply chain, we will get external inflation, which will affect our domestic prices and lead to an increase in prices for a wide list of goods.
I think that the first significant price jump will happen in January 2022. Further, as economic phenomena develop, inflation will move along a certain spiral, which will be restrained by certain regulatory actions on the part of the state. However, if prices continue to rise on international markets, they will also grow in Russia."
Mikhail Popov
banker, founder of the fintech platform
"Most likely, it is unlikely to be possible to completely curb inflation next year.
If you look at the current indicators (official inflation data), analysts predict a price increase of about 8-10% per year. If we do not take into account the groups of goods from the consumer basket, then, of course, the price growth will be heterogeneous. Something will increase in price more, something less.
It is worth noting that the global food market is somehow integrated with raw materials. It is obvious that the rise in raw material prices inevitably leads to an increase in the cost of products.
High energy prices have forced some plastic manufacturers to close or freeze production. This can lead to an increase in the shortage of plastic and an increase in the prices of products in which it is used.
But food prices will partly depend, including on the actions of the government.
It is possible that some industries may receive government support. It is possible that the state will use the mechanism of subsidizing the agro-industrial complex and animal husbandry.
Such support can contribute to the stabilization of prices for these groups of goods for consumers."
If you look at the current indicators (official inflation data), analysts predict a price increase of about 8-10% per year. If we do not take into account the groups of goods from the consumer basket, then, of course, the price growth will be heterogeneous. Something will increase in price more, something less.
It is worth noting that the global food market is somehow integrated with raw materials. It is obvious that the rise in raw material prices inevitably leads to an increase in the cost of products.
High energy prices have forced some plastic manufacturers to close or freeze production. This can lead to an increase in the shortage of plastic and an increase in the prices of products in which it is used.
But food prices will partly depend, including on the actions of the government.
It is possible that some industries may receive government support. It is possible that the state will use the mechanism of subsidizing the agro-industrial complex and animal husbandry.
Such support can contribute to the stabilization of prices for these groups of goods for consumers."
Grigory Volis
Vice President for Business Development of the bank
"In 2022, several new categories of goods will become mandatory for labeling (bicycles, dairy products and mineral water). On the one hand, there are not so many new groups for marking. But it is important that the introduction of a new product into labeling increases the price not only of a specific group of products, but also the entire market segment.
First of all, this is due to the fact that labeling requires updating the seller's software, training personnel, introducing additional control points, as well as legal and accounting support. In a simple way, despite the most difficult stage of the economy, enterprises will have to invest heavily in the implementation of accounting. Of course, the consumer will pay for this.
Moreover, it is obvious that a small sports store will raise prices not only for bicycles and frames, but for its entire range.
Therefore, some of these small sellers will simply close, which will lead to a decrease in competition and, again, to an increase in prices throughout the segment.
We can say that prices will rise in the segments of sports and children's goods, as well as in stores near the house where there was no alcohol trade."
First of all, this is due to the fact that labeling requires updating the seller's software, training personnel, introducing additional control points, as well as legal and accounting support. In a simple way, despite the most difficult stage of the economy, enterprises will have to invest heavily in the implementation of accounting. Of course, the consumer will pay for this.
Moreover, it is obvious that a small sports store will raise prices not only for bicycles and frames, but for its entire range.
Therefore, some of these small sellers will simply close, which will lead to a decrease in competition and, again, to an increase in prices throughout the segment.
We can say that prices will rise in the segments of sports and children's goods, as well as in stores near the house where there was no alcohol trade."
Nikolay Novoselov
founder of a trading and manufacturing company
"It is not necessary to talk about a rapid decline in inflation next year now. Nevertheless, there is no reason to worry too much about the rise in food prices yet.
Almost certainly, imported goods and foreign trips will increase in price, alas, this cannot be avoided. But the measures taken by the Central Bank to curb inflation inspire some optimism, and we can cautiously assume that from the second half of 2022, inflation will begin to decline."
Almost certainly, imported goods and foreign trips will increase in price, alas, this cannot be avoided. But the measures taken by the Central Bank to curb inflation inspire some optimism, and we can cautiously assume that from the second half of 2022, inflation will begin to decline."
Artem Arzamassev
director of a brokerage company
